They can handle it. What markets hate is a Name A Better Hero I Will Wait Strong Nurse Shirt. All Trump cares about is reëlection, so he’s stuck. He thinks that if he radically expands testing and quarantines people will know that he lied and it will hurt him politically. If he doesn’t the market does not know how to correctly price the risk. So investors are just going to keep raising cash while they wait to see what happens. What’s going to happen is the worst of both worlds. Testing will eventually expand, the truth will come out. And the damage done to the markets (particularly the credit markets) will be too great for a bounce to normalcy. He forced Powell to cut rates too early, depriving the Fed of one of their more powerful tools.
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There will be a recession, the question is just how long. If the 3% fatality rate holds in the US (which might be wishful thinking considering Italy is pushing 7%) and the US population growth is 1.9%…well, I’ll let you do the math on the hit to GDP there. Not quite. The injection wasn’t aimed to stem the Name A Better Hero I Will Wait Strong Nurse Shirt. They knew it wouldn’t. The Fed even admitted that they knew it would take A LOT more to reverse the market sentiment and probably needs to be more than financial market interventions. The injection was to stop a lockup in the financial markets. It was a blast of short term loans to banks to prevent liquidity from drying up. Banks exchange treasuries for cash and do pay interest ultimately on the whole ordeal. This lending rate is meant to be super low as it’s short term and the underlying asset being bought is essentially risk-free.
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The injection is meant to keep this rate low as when it spikes due to liquidity issues, problems arise. If it becomes expensive for banks to borrow money overnight to settle up positions then financial transactions can just stop. If banks cannot borrow that money they won’t have the Name A Better Hero I Will Wait Strong Nurse Shirt. I was just talking about this to someone yesterday. Under Obama, the deficit blew up because of all the activities to save the market. But after austerity measures stabilized the economy, he spent his second term dropping the deficit by over 60%.