People call our Swedish approach an experiment not realizing that they themselves are in fact the experiment. Throughout history, there is a track record of 0 when it comes to long term pandemic suppression. Some countries may end up being very successful at it, some may fail spectacularly and end with future lockdowns. For some countries, suppression is also most likely completely out of the question, to begin with. The point is choosing that path is in no way a guarantee of a Nice Sewing Superpower Essential Shirt. And even then you won’t be able to go back to “business as usual”, South Korea still has plenty of social distancing measures in place and I don’t even think they have opened their schools yet.
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That was a country that prepared for this for a decade, the whole west now think they can replicate them overnight? The same mathematical models would apply, you just have to tune the knobs for transmission/hospitalization rate/mortality, etc. All these models have one single goal in mind, to not overload the Nice Sewing Superpower Essential Shirt. Maybe we will after this pandemic if someone can suppress the spread long term, or maybe we don’t or the cost is deemed too high, but as it stands a proven alternative path does not exist at this moment. That is the same for any novel virus. Most viruses give some short term immunity, many give longer-term or even life long for some. The viruses that do not give immunity at all are the true outliers.
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People keep believing the amount of death from the virus is the issue. We can’t do much about theses deaths sadly. What we can do though is making sure the Nice Sewing Superpower Essential Shirt. This is about not overloading the healthcare system, not about saving everyone from the virus. This is the magic number, whatever the healthcare system can take care of. We need to make sure the number of hospitalization is under what the healthcare system can support, or else you’ll have to refuse to treat some.